Geopolitics: power, oil, and outside players

The country chapters each told one nation's story. This chapter zooms out to the forces that connect them. If you understand a handful of rivalries and resources, the region's tangled news starts to make sense as a few overlapping games played at once.

The main fault lines

Think of the modern Middle East as several rivalries layered on the same map.

1. The Arab-Israeli conflict, and specifically Israel and the Palestinians. For decades this was the issue that united Arab states (at least rhetorically) against Israel. It has cooled as a state-to-state war, several Arab countries have made peace or normalised, but the unresolved Palestinian question remains a powerful regional and global flashpoint, as the Gaza war from 2023 showed. See the Palestine and Israel chapters.

2. Saudi Arabia versus Iran. This is the central rivalry of the past two generations. It is partly sectarian (Sunni-led Saudi Arabia versus Shia-led Iran), partly ethnic (Arab versus Persian), and mostly a straightforward contest for regional leadership. The two rarely fight directly; instead they back opposite sides in other countries.

3. Turkey's regional ambition. Turkey, the old imperial power, has reasserted itself as an independent player, intervening in Syria and Libya, projecting influence through trade, religion, drones, and diplomacy, and pursuing its own interests against the Kurds.

4. The Kurdish question. The Kurds, a large people of perhaps 30 to 40 million with their own language, are spread across Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, with no state of their own. Their pursuit of rights or autonomy crosses every border and entangles all four governments, a permanent regional undercurrent.

Don't be confused: "Sunni vs Shia" is a real divide but an overused label. It is genuine theology and genuine community identity, but in geopolitics it is largely a banner for the Saudi-Iran power struggle. Plenty of conflicts here are not about religion at all, and plenty of Sunnis and Shia are allies. Reach for the label carefully.

Proxy wars: how the rivalries play out

Because direct war between big states is rare and costly, the rivalries are fought through local allies. The same outside backers keep appearing:

This is why a single event, say, the Gaza war, can ripple instantly into Lebanon, Yemen, and the Red Sea: the same networks are linked across the whole region.

The resources that drive it all

Oil and gas. The Gulf, above all Saudi Arabia, holds a large share of the world's oil, which is why this region matters so much to everyone else. Oil wealth funds states, buys influence, and draws in outside powers determined to keep energy flowing. The producers' cartel OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, can move the world economy by adjusting output. The Gulf monarchies are now using oil money to build sovereign wealth funds, global investments, and post-oil economies.

Water. Less famous but increasingly decisive. Rivers and aquifers cross borders (the Tigris, Euphrates, and Jordan), and dams upstream affect neighbours downstream. In a drying region, water is a growing source of tension and a real constraint on every country here.

Chokepoints. Geography concentrates power at narrow passages: the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz (the Gulf's oil gateway), and the Bab al-Mandab by Yemen (targeted in the Red Sea shipping crisis). Whoever can threaten these can threaten the world economy.

The outside players

The region has never been left to itself:

• The United States has been the dominant outside power since the mid-20th century: ally of Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Gulf monarchies, guarantor of oil flows, and rival of Iran. Its influence is large but, many argue, declining as it turns attention elsewhere.
• Russia is the other historic heavyweight, long tied to Syria; its intervention saved Assad for a decade, and it sells arms and brokers deals widely.
• China is the rising economic force, the biggest buyer of Gulf oil, an investor across the region, and the surprise broker of the 2023 Saudi-Iran détente. It seeks influence mainly through trade rather than military bases.
• Europe matters as a trade partner, an aid donor, the destination of refugee flows, and, in Britain and France's case, the former mandate powers whose old decisions still echo.

Ideologies and institutions

Three broad political visions have competed across the modern era, and the contest is not settled:

• Secular Arab nationalism (pan-Arabism, Baathism), dominant in the mid-20th century, now weakened.
• Political Islam, in many forms, from the Muslim Brotherhood to Iran's clerical state to extremist groups like ISIS.
• Conservative monarchy, the Gulf model, blending tradition, oil wealth, and cautious modernisation.

Regional bodies exist but are weak: the Arab League (all Arab states, often divided), the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC, the six Gulf monarchies, more cohesive), and OPEC (oil producers, the most effective of the three at shaping outcomes).

Recent shifts to watch

A few trends define the mid-2020s:

• Normalisation with Israel. The 2020 Abraham Accords and continuing talks signal that some Arab states now prioritise countering Iran and economic ties over the old solidarity on Palestine, though the Gaza war complicated this.
• De-escalation among rivals. The 2023 Saudi-Iran deal and a general Gulf turn toward business over confrontation suggest fatigue with proxy wars.
• The fall of Assad (2024) reshuffled the board, weakening Iran and Russia's position in the Levant and raising new uncertainties.
• A multipolar field. With US attention divided and China and Russia active, the region's states increasingly play outside powers off against each other rather than picking one patron.

Don't be confused: alliances here are fluid. Today's enemies can be tomorrow's trading partners. States act on interest, not fixed friendship, so expect the lines on this page to keep moving.

Geopolitics is heavy. The next thread is the most delicious one in the book, and a surprisingly sharp lens on identity: food. 👉